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Fighters - from boom to gloom?

Fighters - from boom to gloom?

Global fighter aircraft market faces some difficulties. There is no doubt about it. Our observer Vladimir Shvariov has studied the impact of the economic downturn on the fighter aircraft market. In his study Vladimir Shvariov compares the market development in the first part of 2009 to 2008 and to the previous 8 years. The author believes half-year results cannot speak for the whole year but this period is enough to arrive at preliminary but well reasoned conclusions.

Total value of the identified contracted obligations concluded for export of multi-purpose fighters for the first part of 2009 is estimated at 1.21 billion US dollars. However, it is too early to speak about the contraction of the fighter market and to give forecast. There are reasons why. The economic recession has clashed first with the necessity of upgrading the available fighter fleet in almost twenty nations and then with an arrival of the fifth generation fighter F-35 to the market.

Today, reduction of procurement and putting-offs have only been announced for three programs. Vietnam reduced its orders of SU-30MK2 fighters from 12 to 8 and adjourned the contract talks on procurement of weapons for these fighters.

Sri-Lanka has announced its intention to postpone the program of purchasing 5 MiG-29 fighters in Russia. Moreover, the Sri-Lanka's decision is more based on political than on economic reasons. The Sri-Lanka's government planned to conclude an agreement on MiG-29 to enhance the national Air Force abilities before beginning the wide scale combat actions against Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) group. However, after the government forces in the Northern part of the country have successfully accomplished the operation and completely destructed all LTTE bases, procurement of the fighters has no longer become the first priority and it may be postponed for some time. Nevertheless, despite the accepted decision to postpone the Russian fighters procurement they should become the primary candidates to replace aircraft Kfir and MiG-27 in the long view, Sri-Lanka AF experts say.

Thailand has called off for a minimum period of two years its decision to purchase the second lot of JAS-39 fighters Gripen. In general, world order backlog for the multi-purpose fighters formed up during 2001-2008 makes 77.737 billion US dollars. During the considered period cost value of the orders kept varying a great deal. The minimum backlog of of 1.829 billion US dollars was registered in 2004 whereas the local minimum of 3.778 billion US dollars was registered in 2006. For the last two years orders for the exported fighters has grown up considerably. The biggest backlog of $22.769 billion was formed in 2007, which resulted in 29,3% of entire backlog for the exported fighters formed during the considered 8-year period. In 2008 the figure amounted to 20.623 billion US dollars (the second result in respect of the cost). All in all, the number of orders placed during 2007-2008 resulted in 56% of the entire volume of orders made during the whole period of 8 years.

Due to extremely big contracts on the purchase of multi-purpose fighters in 2007 - 2008 years, this year the market will undoubtedly go down. In 2009 the weakening of the market will probably be considerable, especially taking in account the world economic downturn. However, the recession in the market of multi-purpose fighters will be short because along with the improvement of the economic situation more than twenty nations will resume the great scale programs related to the fighters purchase. Most likely the sharp growth of the world market will take place in 2011 and considerable orders increase compared to 2009 is already expected in 2010.

There is a number of contacts made in the first half of 2009 that are worth paying attention to.

The USA have concluded two extremely important contracts, which in respect of the future prospects have a key importance for the state, of delivery of pre-production trial prototypes of F-35 fighters of the fifth generation. A $252 million contract of delivery of two fighters F-35 Lightning-2 was awarded the UK. Another $120 million contract of delivery of 1 fighter F-35 Lightning-2 was made with the Netherlands.

In the beginning of July Israeli Air Force sent an official request to the US Department of Defense to purchase 25 F-35 Lightning-2 aircraft. However, the negotiations held to fix the final price of the aircraft and integration of Israeli produced systems on them will continue.

Initially, the Israeli Ministry of Defense planned to purchase some one hundred F-35 aircraft to replace the biggest part of F-16 fighters' fleet, the delivery of which is planned for 2014 or 2015. However, in the Defense Procurement Draft for 2008-2012, made public in September, 2008, envisages allocations only for the purchase of 25 fighters F-35.

Besides, in the first part of 2009 the USA and South Korea concluded a big contract worth 250 million US dollars to upgrade 35 fighters F-16C/D block-52 Fighting Falcon.

The total cost of the three contracts is $622 million gives the palm to the USA in competition for the results of the first part of 2009.

The second place goes to Russia with its delivery contract of 8 SU-30-MK2V aircraft for Vietnam (estimated at $320 million).

The Netherlands ranks third with $ 270 million delivery contract of 16 fighters F-16A/B from the national Air Force block-15 Fighting Falcon signed with Chili. The aircraft shall be upgraded by Lockheed Martin prior to their supply.

The results of the first part of 2009 are likely to mark a considerable improvement in talks between France and India on a long-expected agreement on the upgrade of 52 Mirage-2000H fighters. By July 2009, the Sides have arrived to the final stage of the negotiations. The cost of the agreement is estimated at 100 billion rupees ($ 2.05 billion).

India and France have been in talks on 51 multi-mission Mirage-2000H fighters upgrade for more than two years. The major obstacle was the price. The French Contractor Companies, Dassault Aviation and Thales insisted on the price of 140 billion rupees necessary for the upgrade whereas the Indian Defense Ministry estimated the program at 100 billion rupees. The contradictions were reportedly cleared off and the French manufacturers accepted the conditions of the Ministry of Defense of India.

From 4 up to 6 first Mirage-2000H aircraft are planned to upgraded in France, the rest are to be upgraded in "HAL" Company. The modernization made for the on-board equipment, engines, structural elements and weapons system will enable to extend the operation of 51 Mirage-2000H aircraft of the Indian Air Force for the period of 20 to 25 years.

Besides, Belgium has reached an agreement with Jordan to deliver 9 F-16AM/BM fighters from the national Air Force. The presumed deal is estimated at $83.5 million.

Such a modest result of the first part of 2009 is not quite objective as many countries either have announced or are going to announce international tenders for the purchase of multi-purpose fighters. Besides, some countries have reported their intentions to purchase fighters directly from the country of production.

Since the fighters segment is the most significant among all categories of the aviation equipment, the further analysis of the market development will be made in four major stages, namely: current programs related to the fighters upgrade (2009 and so on); new fighters supply in 2009 and further based on the contracts concluded before January 1, 2009; current and scheduled tenders; an overall balance in respect to the fighters supply for the previous and subsequent 5 years (2004 - 2013).

FIGHTERS UPGRADE PROGRAMS

The market of fighters' upgrade as per the contracts at the stage of execution by January 1, 2009 makes $8.5 billion. This amount incorporates the orders which are going to be executed in 2009 and later as well as contracts that were in progress  before January 1, 2009 and talks on which will continue during the period under review.

The UK will complete a longstanding program of upgrade of 84 Tornado fighters for the Saudi Arabian Air Force in 2009- 2011 (the program was launched in 2005, the planned budget was $1.847 billion).

Israel will complete a long-term program of upgrade of 46 F-5E Freedom Fighter for the Brazilian Air Force. The program was started in 2005. The total value of the contract amounts to $230 million. Besides, from 2009 to 2011 Israel is going to upgrade 31 F-5E "Tiger-2" fighter aircraft for the Air Force of Thailand. The sum of the contract is $90 million.

Russia is launching the biggest - in monetary terms - program of upgrading 63 MiG-29 fighters for the Indian Air Force. The total cost of the program for 2010-2014 is estimated at $964 million.

Besides, in 2009 - 2011 Russia will upgrade 19 MiG-29 fighters of the Peruvian Air Force (the sum of the contract is 106 million US dollars).

The upgrade program of MiG-31 interceptors of Kazakhstan Air Force is going on as scheduled. At the same time Russia is involved in some smaller upgrade programs carried out with some countries.

The USA signed $300 million contract for the upgrade of 14 F-16A/B block-15 Fighting Falcon fighters for the Air Force of Pakistan.

On request from Turkey, in 2009 - 2016 a great scale program of upgrading 216 F-16C/D Fighting Falcon fighters for the Air Force of Turkey (the sum of the contract is $635 million) will be performed.

A two-stage upgrade of 64 F/A-18С/D Hornet fighters is carried out on the basis of two contracts with Finland). The total sum of two contracts is $706 million.

On request from the Air Force of Switzerland in the course of 2009 - 2011, 33 F/A-18C/D Hornet fighters will be upgraded for the total sum of $535 million.

Turkey signed contracts on carrying out two programs of modernization. Thus, in 2009 - 2010, for the Air Force of Jordan a four- year program implying the modernization of 17 fighters F-16А/В block-15 Fighting Falcon - the program worth $87 million - will be fulfilled. And for the Air Force of Pakistan in 2009 - 2012 another program estimated at $650 million (the upgrade of 42 F-16А/В block-15 Fighting Falcon fighters) will be implemented.

France has three operating contracts to upgrade fighters. In 2010 - 2012, 51 Mirage-2000H fighters will be upgraded for the Indian Air Force - the value of contract amounts to $2.05 billion (in the middle of 2009 the contract was at the final stage of talks   and was almost ready to be signed).

France has received a request from the Air Force of Libya to upgrade 12 Mirage F.1 fighters in 2010 - the contract is estimated at $180 million.

On request from the Air Force of Morocco three-year program of modernization of 27 Mirage F.1CH/EH fighters worth $420 million will be completed in 2009.

II. NEW FIGHTERS DELIVERIES

The total value of contracts for fighter aircraft deliveries starting from 2009 and later is estimated at $40.5 billion.

EF-2000 Typhoon. In 2009 the final lot of 5 EF-2000 fighters out of 15 ordered aircraft will be delivered to Austria (the contract value is $1.7 billion). The Typhoon modification is delivered to the Austrian Air Force in terms of "tranch-1" of the German Air Force. Later on, the quantity in the composition of the German Air Force will be restored by procurement on the basis of "tranche-2".

The greatest export program implies the supply of 72 aircraft EF-200 to the Air Force of Saudi Arabia (the contract amounts to $8.86 billion). The deliveries are scheduled for 2009-2014.

JAS-39C/D Gripen. In terms of the contract with Thailand, in 2011-2012 the Air Force of this country will receive 6 aircraft (the deal amounts to $420 million including options). Besides, at the beginning of 2009, the sides agreed to transform the option into an purchase of 6 additional fighters in terms of a fixed contract. The aircraft deliveries are set for 2012 - 2013. (This summer, the supply of the second lot was said to be shifted for a minimum of two years).

Deliveries of JAS-39C/D to the Republic of South Africa in terms of $1.8 billion contract continue. Starting from2009 and up to 2012, 22 aircraft should be delivered out of total order of 26 units. (4 aircraft were supplied in 2008.).

F-16. In 2009-2030, 30 fighters F-16C/D block-52 Fighting Falcon are to be delivered to the Air Force of Greece (the contract amounts to $2 billion). Order placed by the Air Force of Morocco for supply of 24 F-16C/D block-50/52 Fighting Falcon fighters is to be completed in 2009 - 2011 (the contract amounts to $2.4 billion).

In 2009 - 2011, 18 F-16С/D block-52+ Fighting Falcon fighters will be supplied to Pakistan in terms of $498 million contract.  

In 2011-2012, 30 F-16C/D block-50 Fighting Falcon fighters are to be delivered to Turkey in terms of $1.78 billion contract.

F-15. In accordance with $ 1 billion contract signed in 2005, 12 F-15T Strike Eagle fighters should be supplied to Air Force of Singapore during 2009 - 2010, and in terms of contract 2007 they will be followed by additional 12 F-15T Strike Eagle fighters.

Order worth $2.4 billion place by the South Korea implies the delivery of 12 F-15K Eagle in 2010-2012.

F/A-18E/F. Today, Australia is the biggest customer of F/A-18E/F fighters. Due to $3.517 billion contract 24 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters are to be supplied to the Air Force of Australia during 2010-2012.

JF-17 Thunder. The only export program of a Chinese fighter is its manufacture under license in Pakistan. The total order amounts to 150 aircraft at the total value of $2.3 billion. In 2009-2014, 133 JF-17 aircraft should be produced. In terms of the said contract China has supplied initial lot of 15 accomplished aircraft (2 aircraft were manufactured under license).

MiG-29К/KUB. In 2009 the contract on the basis of the order placed for 16 aircraft by the Indian Navy (the contract amounts  to $700 million) will be completed. In the nearest future an option for supply of 29 fighters MiG-29К/KUB is expected to be transformed into a fixed order.

Su-27SKM. In 2009 - 2010, 3 Su-27SKM aircraft is to be supplied to Indonesia (the order amounts to about $150 million).

Su-30. In compliance with the schedule, the last lot of 10 SU-30MKA out of the total order of 28 aircraft is to be supplied to Algeria in 2009 (the order is estimated at $1.5 billion). Russia anticipates a possibility to sign a contract for additional Su-30MKA.

The program on license agreement for manufacturing 140 Su030MKI fighters launched with India is still going on. In terms of   the contract during 2009 - 2013 (most likely this program will be extended up to 2015) 98 aircraft are to be manufactured (42 are already assembled).

In terms of direct supplies based on the contract of 2007 for 40 aircraft, the remaining 34 Su-30MKI aircraft will be delivered to the Indian Air Force in 2009-2010.

TENDERS DECLARED AND SCHEDULED

1. The Ministry Of Defense of Romania considers a possibility to procure 48 multi-purpose fighters (40 combat single-seater and 8 twin-seater combat/training aircraft) in compliance with the NATO standards. The estimated program cost is 4 billion Euros ($6 billion). Depending upon the form and terms of payment, financial conditions the expenses may grow up by 50 % - up to 6 billion Euros.

Tender results are expected in 2009. Supply of the new fighters is to be completed by 2014. However, the world wide economic crisis may have an impact on the time terms and quantity of the aircraft purchased.

SAAB (JAS-39 Gripen), Boeing (F/A-18 Super Hornet), Lockheed Martin (F-16 Fighting Falcon), Dassault Aviation (Rafale) and Eurofighter (EF-2000 Typhoon) have sent their responses to the Ministry of Defense of Romania. In accordance with the available data JAS-39 Gripen, EF-2000 Typhoon and F-16 Fighting Falcon are preferable for the purchase.

It is not impossible that the financial problems will bring Gripen to the leading position during the tender as the least expensive aircraft. At the same time Consortium Eurofighter announced its readiness to deliver the aircraft to the Ministry of Defense of Romania within the allocated budget and to propose a cocurrent off-set program.

Eurofighter is planning to propose a supply of restored and upgraded Typhoons from the second market to the Romanian Air Force if the financial situation makes the Romanian Ministry of Defense purchase a combination of new and second-hand aircraft.

F-16 fighters have also great chances to be a success, mostly because of the deployment of a wide-scale infrastructure for support of American bases situated in the territory of Romania.

2. The Ministry of Defense of Norway in November of 2008 announced its selection of F-35A Lightning-2 as a winner of the tender for supply of new generation fighters for the National Air Force (the decision was approved by the Government of the State but it is still subject to approval from the Parliament). The program's preliminary budget is equal to $3.5 billion.

The aircraft inventory of the Air Force of Norway incorporates 57 F-16AM/BM aircraft, the operational life of which is going to expire in 2015. In 2007, to replace these aircraft the Ministry of Defense of Norway called for a competition. Apart from Lockheed Martin Company, SAAB with Gripen NG and Consortium Eurofighter with EF-2000 Typhoon took part in the competition. In December, 2007, Eurofighter said it was leaving the tender.

Within the framework of F-35 manufacture Norway considers a possibility to produce composite material and other components and software for the aircraft.

Official talks with Lockheed Martin on the contract will begin in the second half of 2009. Deliveries of new aircraft and removal of F-16 from the inventory are expected to be performed by phases. In case if the contract is signed, in compliance with the agreement reached in 2007, the first 8 F-35 aircraft may be delivered in 2015. If the development and deliveries schedules are observed all 48 fighters may be passed over to the Air Force of Norway by the end of 2019.

3. In February, 2009, due to the economic crisis the Ministry of Defense of Croatia decided to adjourn a tender for 12 multi-purpose aircraft scheduled for the second half of 2009 for two-five years. The fighters that were planned to be put into service for the Air Force within 2011-2015 should replace the remaining 12 MiG-21 operated by the Croatian Air Force, as their operational life expires between 2011 and 2013.

In compliance with the last assessment performed by the Ministry of Defense of Croatia the procurement program cost is about 5 billion Croatian kunas ($844 million). The project has been estimated at 2.64 billion Croatian kunas before. In the long view the number of the procured aircraft may increase up to 16 or 18 units (12 - 14 single-seater and 4 two-seater aircraft).

Lockheed Martin (F-16 block-52 Fighting Falcon), SAAB (JAS-39C/D Gripen), Dassault (Rafale), Eurofighter (EF-2000 Typhoon) and RSK MiG (MiG-35) have intentions to participate in the competition.

Procurement of restored aircraft F-16, Gripen, Mirage-2000-5 and MiG-29M from the Air Forces of various countries is among alternative options.

According to the Croatian Legislation, contracts for weapons supply envisages an offset program performed with the volume not less 100 % of the contract cost.

4. At the end of 2008 the Japan Defense Agency re-postponed the date of tender for deliveries of fighters for the Air Force of the National Self Defense Forces in accordance with program F-X. The final decision on participants must be taken in 2009. The primary cause of such an adjournment is the persistent intention of the Defense Agency to include F-22 Raptor fighter as a participant of the tender. Their export is forbidden by the American Legislation.

Earlier, the Japan Defense Agency had some grounds to expect the permission from the US Administration to procure F-22 Raptor fighter. However, the statement made by US Secretary of Defense Robert Geitz (after Barack Obama came to power as  new President) on the termination of this aircraft productions ruined hopes of Japan to receive F-22 as a new generation fighter (nevertheless, this issue is not closed, yet). Under these conditions F-35B Lightning-2 becomes the primary pretender to win in the scheduled competition.

The total value program for supply of new fighters (up to 100 units) is estimated at 1 trillion yens ($8.5 billion US).

Eurofighter (EF-2000 Typhoon), Dassault Aviation (Rafale) and Boeing, which offered aircraft F-15FX and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, are considered among the other potential winners. But it is doubtful that Japan will select a "not-American" aircraft apprehending to spoil relations with Washington. The only real alternative for F-35B may be an upgraded version of F-15SE "Silent Eagle" fighter (the aircraft construction includes technologies applied in the fifth-generation aircraft) proposed by Boeing not long ago.

Nevertheless, the chances of F-35 are considerably greater. Moreover, Lockheed Martin expressed it readiness to consider a possibility for manufacture of F-35 under license in Japan, which is one of the conditions of the competition. But supplies of F-35 for the foreign customers may start not earlier than in 2012, and Japan will be able to get these fighters only in 2016.

As a temporary measure to maintain combat readiness of the Air Force, in December, 2008, the Japan Defense Agency decided to upgrade, in general, 48 F-15 fighters. In 2009, the Government allocated 89.2 billion yens ($988.3 million) for the upgrade of 22 F-15 and for purchase of onboard radars for 38 F-15.

The Japanese Administration has also taken a decision that Mitsubishi company will work out a demonstrator of technologies of a new national fighter ATD-X. All in all, till 2015, the Japan Defense Agency plans to allocate 39.4 billion yens ($441.5 million) for the program. The first flight tests of the new aircraft are scheduled for 2014.

Today, the Air Force of Japan is equipped with about 150 F-15 "Eagle" aircraft, about 90 F-4EJ fighters, needed to be replaced, as well as outdated F-1 and F-2. F-4EJ is expected to be removed from inventory in 2012 or 2013.

5. At the end of 2007 the Air Force of Brazil decided to resume execution of the program for the purchase of fighters (the program was named FX-2). The Brazilian Ministry of Defense intends to purchase 36 fighters (supply in 2014 - 2016) at the first stage. The estimated cost is $2.2 billion (by 2020 the total number of fighters purchased by Brazil may grow up to 120 units). To win in the competition the supplying company should transfer the aircraft manufacturing technology to the Brazilian industry.

Within the program F-X2 framework the Brazilian Air Force sent information request to Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Eurofighter, SAAB, Dassault Aviation and ANK Sukhoi in June 2008.

On October 1, 2008, after the assessment performed, the Management Commission of F-X2 project announced the participants in the final stage of the competition. Among them are the following: Boeing (F/A-18E/F Super Hornet) - Brazil is offered the most update version of F/A-18E/F block-2, - SAAB (Gripen) and Dassault (Rafale). Su-35 fighters of Sukhoi, EF-2000 of Eurofighter and F-16 of Lockheed martin were excluded from the list of pretenders.

All three runner-ups passed their final proposals to Brazil in February of 2009. In April, 2009, the Air Force of Brazil announced the beginning of flight tests and assessment of technical properties. The winner is expected to be named in summer,  2009 whereas the contract is to be signed in October.

Despite the announcement made by the Brazilian Air Force the general situation around this program is still completely unclear. In particular, in February, 2009, during a visit to Brazil on behalf of Sukhoi company, the delegation of Rosoboronexport offered the Ministry of Defense of Brazil to present Su-35 aircraft for reassessment .

On the basis of the available information, Brazilian Minister of Defense Nelson Jobim accepted the proposal and informed the Air Force would perform the tests. On behalf of Eurofighter a similar proposition was made by Italy in terms of EF-2000 aircraft.

The Minister's statement put the Brazilian Air Force which was not aware of the changes in the tender's procedures, in an awkward situation. If all initial participants come back to the tender (obviously, if Alenia Aeronautica and Rosoboronexport are permitted to present their proposals, the same will be done by Lockheed martin) the final decision on the purchase will be put-off.

At the same time due to the world economic crisis the Brazilian Ministry of Finance proposed to freeze up to 50 % of investment part of the state defense budget. Besides, in 2010 president election will take place in Brazil and if the procurement procedures are extended till that time, the new Administration may require more time to arrive to any decision.

6. The Ministry of Defense of Denmark is engaged in a tender to replace available 48 F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter of the Air Force. Approximately equal chances belong to F-35 Lightning-2 and JAS-39 Gripen. In March of 2008 Boeing reported its intention to present F/A-18E/F Super Hornet for the tender. It is remarkable, that today Boeing performs a very aggressive promoting program and plans to win the tender with F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (Demark is offered F/A-18E/F block-2 version, which is supplied to the US Navy today). Earlier, EF-2000 Typhoon took part in the competition but in December, 2007, Eurofighter reported to leave the competition.

The Ministry of Defense of Denmark will have to carry out a detailed assessment and by the middle of 2009 to present its suggestions on the aircraft purchase to the Danish Parliament. Although the information request envisages deliveries of 48 fighters, the quantity may either be reduced or increased. The aircraft is expected to be supplied in 2016-2020.

Despite the fact that Denmark participates in F-35 "Lightning-2" design program the delay of its implementation raise chances  for the other pretenders. Nevertheless, it is necessary to take into account that although participation in development and demonstration of the F-35 aircraft is not mandatory for the aircraft purchase, the share of Denmark as the third level partner at the stage amounts to $125 million.

7. The Ministry of Defense of Switzerland has put-off the tender summation held for the purchase of fighters aimed at replacing F-5E Tiger. The final decision will be taken only after the Nation Security Maintenance Strategy is considered in December of 2009. It means that the winner will be named in 2010 (before it was July of 2009).

Selection of a new generation aircraft in two stages for the Air Force of Switzerland started in January, 2008 when the Swiss Agency for Defense Procurements Armasuisse sent requests to four producing companies. Only aircraft in service were allowed to participate in the tender.

The following companies gained invitations: Dassault Aviation (Rafale), Gripen International (JAS-39 Gripen), EADS (EF-2000 Typhoon) and Boeing (F/A-18E/F Super Hornet). At the end of April, 2008, Boeing officially announced its refusal to participate in the competition. The remaining pretenders sent their propositions by summer of 2008.

It ought to be noted that to make its proposal more attractive, in April of 2009 SAAB proposed Switzerland a counterpurchase of 50 RS-21 by Pilatus at the estimated cost of $870 million.

Before the end of 2008 the Ministry of Defense, Air Force of Switzerland and Armasuisse assessed the received proposals and performed aircraft ground and flight tests.

In January, 2009, Armasuisse sent a renewed request for deliveries of 22 aircraft to the tender participants - the total cost of the deliveries should not exceed 2.2 billion Swiss francs ($2 billion).

Due to the earlier approved schedule the assessment should have been completed till the end of this May. The proposal to choose the winner should have been sent to the Minister of Defense of Switzerland in July, 2009. After that the selection was to be approved by the Federal Council and the Parliament of Switzerland. The program was expected be approved by the Parliament in 2010 and then the contract should have been signed with the winner. Now all these procedures are put off for 6-12 month

Deliveries of the fighters and their acceptance for the AF inventory are to be completed till the end of 2012 (but taking into account the delay in the winner selection, deliveries are likely to be put off to 2013).

8. By the end of the current decade the Ministry of Defense of Finland plans to call for multi-purpose fighters competition. Today, the Ministry of Defense develops the list of requirements for the next generation aircraft. In this context there are two options under consideration: either procurement of a new aircraft or upgrade of F-18C/D (64 units) which are in service. The decision is expected to be taken after 2011.

Today the Air Force of Finland initiated the second stage of the upgrade program for F/A-18C/D Hornet. The cost of the equipment which is to be purchased within the framework of the stage is estimated at 1.3 billion Euros.

In accordance with the plans the upgrade of F/A-18C/D Hornet aircraft in the course of the second stage will be completed by 2015. The upgraded aircraft will come in service by 2020 - 2025.

9. In April, 2008, the Ministry of Defense of South Korea reported its decision to procure a lot of F-15K fighters within the framework of the second stage of program F-X. The aircraft are aimed at replacing outdated F-4 and F-5, which are still in service today.

Contract envisages deliveries of 21 new fighters including one additional aircraft to replace F-15K crashed in June, 2006. $4.2 billion contract for supply of the first 40 units of F-15K was signed by South Korea and Boeing in 2002. The first part of the project was named FX1. The first two fighters F-15K entered service in the Air Force of South Korea in October, 2005. By the end of December, 2007, 30 aircraft were delivered including 12 units in 2007. Supply of the remaining 10 fighters was completed in 2008.

Initially, within the second stage of the contract the Air Force planned to purchase 20 fighters F-15, which were to be supplied during 2010-2012. The total cost of the agreement amounted to 2.3 trillion wons ($2.3 billion). By adding some changes to the offset program carried by Boeing additional aircraft will be supplied.

Third phase of F-X program expected to begin in 2011 envisages the purchase of the fifth generation fighters. In March, 2009, the Ministry of Defense of South Korea started to study aircraft tactical and technical properties within the framework of the third stage of F-X program.

F-35 Lightning is considered as the primary candidate. According to Lockheed Martin representatives deliveries of F-35A fighters to South Korea may start in 2014, providing that the contract is signed before 2010.

The Ministry of Defense of South Korea is considering a possibility to purchase F35B, fighters of the fifth generation, with  reduced take-off and vertical landing ability to be deployed on a landing/helicopter dock ship of Docto-class along with purchasing F-35A aircraft with normal take off and landing ability for the Air Force. Decision to equip the dock within the Docto project with F-35B will increase chances of Lockheed Martin to win the tender.

Options under consideration by the Ministry of Defense of South Korea include upgraded F-15SE aircraft of Boeing and F-16 of Lockheed Martin, EF-2000 Typhoon of Eurofighter and Rafale of Dassault. The list of pretenders for procurement includes F-22 "Raptor" but the American Legislation and the high cost of the aircraft will likely prevent Seoul from purchasing the fighter.

The Ministry of Defense of South Korea is expected to name the winner for aircraft supply within the third stage of F-X program in 2011. At this stage 60 aircraft will be purchased. The cost of the fighters procured within the framework of F-X program will be not less than 4.5 billion US dollars. They are scheduled to be supplied for the Air Force of the country during 2014-2019.

10. The Netherlands. The Government of The Netherlands is considering to adjourn its decision to procure F-35 Lightning-2 fighters till the next elections due in 2011, despite that in December, 2008, the Ministry of Defense of The Netherlands stated that F-35 fully meets the requirements determined by the Air Force for replacement of operating F-16.

The Ministry of Defense made such a decision by comparing the information provided by the potential candidates. F-35 Lightning-2, upgraded version of F-16 block 60 of Lockheed Martin and JAS-39 Gripen-NG were considered as possible pretenders for the aircraft of the new generation deliveries.

The aircraft valuation was carried out in terms of the agreement between the Ministry of Defense and The Parliament of The Netherlands on approval of the State financial support and participation in the stage of the initial operational tests and the fighter's valuation (IOT&E), which was designed within the framework of F-35 program. The Dutch Ministry of Defense agreed to perform a full scope comparative assessment of all alternative options to enable the Parliament to arrive to the final conclusion on the possible participation in this stage envisaging the purchase of two prototypes.

The dispute about the purchase of F-35 have become more aggressive recently. The opinions on the issue have divided. The Ministry of Defense of The Netherlands planned to allocate 6.2 billion Euros for the purchase of F-35. But due to the fact that at this time Lockheed Martin is unable to announce the final cost of the production aircraft the number of fighters which may be purchased with this amount is still unclear. Formally, The Netherlands planned to purchase 85 F-35 fighters but in 2011 the government may approve the procurement only of the first lot of 55 aircraft.

Since joining F-35 program in 2002, the Netherlands, as the second-level partner assigned more than 1 billion Euros for the project development, (initially the expenses were estimated at $800 million).

If the Dutch Parliament approves the procurement of the prototype the Dutch pilots will be able to participate in initial operational tests and IOT&E assessment of F-35 fighters starting from 2013.

Despite the "political debates" two F-35 prototypes are likely to be purchased. The first aircraft is expected to be purchased in 2009 and the second one - in 2010.

Two production F-35 aircraft are expected to join the Air Force in 2014. But to have the fighters delivered by the date the Government of The Netherlands should place the order in 2011 and sign official contracts not later than in 2012.

11. Libya plans to buy from 18 up to 24 new fighters. Russia and France are the major competitors.

Russia considers a possibility to deliver 12 multi-purpose fighters Su-35.

For its part Dassault Aviation is preparing a proposal to supply 14 multi-purpose fighters Rafale to Libya. Today, the final decision about procurement of aircraft is not taken and the estimated date of the final negotiations is not determined. Paris and Tripoli are still engaged with the negotiations and information exchange. Fully functional multi-mission F3 fighters - similar to those used by the Air Force of France - are expected to be supplied to Tripoli.

 12. Taiwan. In 2008 the USA delayed the program to supply 66 F-16C/D block-50/52 fighters to Taiwan worth $4.9 billion to avoid deteriorations in relations with China (in 2007 Taiwan Parliament voted for assignment of funds to procure these fighters).

For its part, Taiwan keeps reporting its readiness to purchase F-16C/D fighters in the USA and to restore the funds meant for their procurement as soon as Washington permits to sell them. Finally the supply is likely to be accomplished.

In 1992 Taiwan purchased 150 F-16 aircraft in A/B version in the USA and its intention is to procure additional quantity of F-16C/D to upgrade its Air Force.

Taiwan has also expressed its interest to procure fighters F-35B over the long term.

Today, the Air Force of Taiwan is equipped with about 136 fighters F-16 in A/B version, 89 F-5E/F-5F Tiger-2, 10 Mirage-2000-5D fighters and 47 Mirage-2000-5E fighters. Besides, Taiwan has 130 fighters of its own manufacture which is F-CK-1/IDF.

13. Egypt plans to buy about 40 new fighters. Earlier it reported its intention to purchase Russian MiG-29 but it is necessary to take into account that the official Cairo traditionally receives military assistance from Washington.

Unofficial sources say, the Ministry of Defense of Egypt was considering the purchase of an additional lot of F-16 fithers. Officially, the Ministry of Defense of Egypt did not make these plans public.

From the beginning of 1980-ies Egypt purchased more than 200 F-16A/B/C/D Fighting Falcon fighters in the USA along with other weapons systems within the six stages of the program "Peace Vector". The last aircraft F-16 procured by Egypt in terms of the program are to be supplied in 2009 by Lockheed Martin.

14. In February, 2009, the Ministry of Defense of Greece stated that because of procurement of new aircraft by Turkey Greece will have to start negotiations on the purchase of not less than 40 fighters in order to maintain parity between the Air Forces of two countries. The potential cost of the contract is estimated at 1.1 billion Euros.

The Ministry of Defense of Greece intends to buy the fighters in two stages. The first envisaging the purchase of 40 aircraft is scheduled for 2009. The agreement stipulates an option for additional supply of 20 fighters, which is planned to be accomplished in 2010-2011. Earlier the said project was postponed for several times because of lack of funds.

Boeing (F/A-18E/F block-2 Super Hornet), Lockheed Martin (F-16), Eurofighter (EF-2000 Typhoon), Dassault (Rafale) and Gripen International (JAS-39E Gripen NG) are potential participants in tender.

The Ministry of Defense of Greece earlier rejected the French offer to procure 40 fighters Rafale F.3 foreseeing the return with partial offset of the cost of the outdated 25 Mirage-2000.

Among the biggest current programs there is a purchase of F-16 block-52+ Fighting Falcon fighters. 1.625 billion Euros agreement was made in March, 2006. The program envisages the supply 30 of aircraft equipped with engines F100-PW-229 for the total cost of 1.1 billion Euros and assignment of 525 million Euros to ensure technical support of 60 aircraft of the same type, which were purchased in terms of the contract signed in 2000.

In March, 2009, the first F-16 block-52+ fighter - manufactured in terms of Peace Ksenia-4 program - was delivered to the Air Force of Greece. In accordance with project Peace Ksenia-4 the Air Force of Greece is to get 30 F-16 aircraft in version block-52+, including 20 single-seater and 10 twin-seater aircraft. The first lot of four aircraft is to be delivered Greece in May, 2009. The remaining aircraft supply will be accomplished in 2010.

The aircraft purchased in compliance with Peace Ksenia-4 program constitute the fourth lot of F-16 procured by Greece. Up to the present 140 F-16 fighters including 60 fighters of block-52+ version, 40 - of block-50 and 40 - of block-30 have been purchased for the Air Force of Greece. Due to various reasons, 131 aircraft are still in service.

15. In February, 2008, Indonesia reported its intention to buy six new multi-purpose F-16C/D block-52 fighters in addition to 10 aircraft of the same type in service. It is remarkable that this deal has nothing to do with the plans of Indonesia to procure aircraft of Russian manufacture.

Two more fighters, Su-30MK2, were delivered to the Indonesian Air Force at the end of December, 2008. Another SU-30MK2 was supplied in January of 2009. Supply of three Su-27SKM aircraft is due before 2010. The supplies are carried out in terms of $335 million contract for supply of 6 fighters of "Su" type to Indonesia, including 3 Su-27SKM and 3 Su-30MK2, signed between Rosoboronexport and the Government of Indonesia in August, 2007.

Together with the previously procured fighters of Su-type (two Su-27SK aircraft and two Su-30MK aircraft purchased by Indonesia in 2003) these aircraft will form a full squadron.

Today, the Ministry of Defense of Indonesia and Rosoboronexport have come close to the the final stage of negotiations on supply of six new aircraft of Su-type.

Previously, Indonesia announced its plans to purchase from 18 to 24 aircraft of Su-27/Su-30 family.

16. This year the Indian Air Force is going to conduct tests in terms of the tender for supply of 126 medium multi-purpose fighters at the total value of $10 - 12 billion. The technical assessment of the proposals has been completed.

After the flight tests are completed the Air Force expert teams will be sent to the manufacturing countries to carry out an assessment of the full set of weapon systems which could be installed on the aircraft. After the complex assessment is completed the Air Force will declare a short list of pretenders in compliance with the aircraft properties, open the commercial offers and start negotiations with a company which propose the lowest price. After the negotiations are finalized the Contracts should be approved by the Minister of Defense and Security Council for the Government of the State.

India plans to name the winner and to sign the contract in 2010. Nevertheless, the complexity of the project and varying political preferences may delay the program implementation. Supply of the first fighters is to begin in 48 months after the agreement is signed.

The Indian Ministry Of Defense has issued a request for proposal for purchase of 126 multi-purpose medium class aircraft in August, 2007. Six pretenders including UAC (MiG-35), Dassault Aviation (Rafale), Eurofighter (EF-2000 Typhoon), Gripen International (Gripen IN), Lockheed Martin (F-16 Fighting Falcon) and Boeing (F/A-18E/F Super Hornet) took part in the tender and sent their proposals in April, 2008.

India's relations with neighboring Pakistan, which became complicated after the terrorist act in Mumbai, forced the Indian Air Force to boost the purchase new aircraft. The Air Force plans to receive new aircraft by 2012. In compliance with the requirements of the competition the winner have to supply 18 aircraft to the Indian Air Force. Additional 108 aircraft will be manufactured under license at HAL factories (74 aircraft produced in India will be in a single-seater version and 34 in a twin- seater version). The selected contractor will have to reinvest 50 % of the contract cost into Indian Military-industrial Complex.  Manufacture of addition number of fighters is not excluded.

All the pretenders have equal chances as India being one of the biggest buyers of military equipment among the developing nations may choose fighters of two different companies, experts say.

One more way to enhance the operational inventory is to upgrade aircraft in service. As part of the upgrade programs MiG-21, MiG-27 and Jaguar were equipped with modern onboard avionics and weapons systems. Today, MiG-29 aircraft are undergoing upgrade. In the nearest future an upgrade program for Mirage-2000H fleet is expected to be launched. Besides, manufacture of Su-30MKI is sped up at the factory in Nasik.

In December, 2008, HAL and UAC signed an agreement on joint design and manufacture of a fifth generation fighter. The agreement is expected to enable the Air Force to have not just the most modern aircraft in service but it will assist the Indian Aero Space Industry to gain an access to the most advanced technologies.

India and Russia plan to put into service the jointly designed fighter of the fifth generation by 2017. Representatives of the interested agencies of both nations intend to settle all arguments in respect of the said project in the nearest months and sign an agreement for research-and-development activity by the middle of 2009.

By the end of the 13-th scheduled period (by 2022) the Air Force of India is expected to have 42 combat squadrons - bigger than it was earlier approved by the Government of the country. By the end of the 11-th, 12-th and 13-th scheduled periods the number of the Air Force squadrons will make 35.5, 35 and 42 correspondingly.

17. The Air Force of Philippines intend to restore the fighter fleet within the framework of the program due in 2011 - 2012 and purchase new aircraft at the total cost of  $1 billion. The number and type of the fighters scheduled for purchase are not determined, yet, but "acceptable" options matching the budget will be considered. The Air Force of Philippines does not have combat fighters in the inventory after excluding the last F-5A/B Freedom Fighter from its fleet in October, 2005.

18. Bulgaria. The Political Administration of Bulgaria approved to launch the program for the purchase of new aircraft in the middle of 2008. Within the framework of the said project the Air Force and Ministry of Defense of Bulgaria sent an information request on the possibility to supply aircraft JAS-39 Gripen (Gripen International), Rafale (Dassault), EF-2000 Typhoon  (Eurofighter), F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (Boeing) and F-16C/D (Lockheed Martin). Information and materials from the manufacturers are received and are under processing today.

At the same time, as it has become known, last December the Ministry of Defense of Bulgaria in order to train Bulgarian Air Force pilots sent the American Defense Department a request on the possibility to receive eight F-16 block-21 fighters used by the US Air Force. In compliance with the documents sent to the Bulgarian Ministry of Defense, today, the US Air Force is choosing aircraft to be supplied to the Air Force of Bulgaria and estimates the possible version of the upgrade. In particular, the supplied equipment may be upgraded up to either the block-40 or block-50. If the request is approved Bulgaria will get the aircraft free of charge but the country will be obliged to reimburse their restoration, recommission and upgrade. Bulgarian and American experts say it will be necessary to spend about $400 million to upgrade the aircraft. Besides, this deal may be accomplished without obligation to fulfill the off set program as distinguished from the fighters' selection based on the tender results.

19. The Ministry of Defense of Serbia considers a possibility to purchase multi-purpose fighters capable to gain air superiority, to hit ground targets and to conduct reconnaissance operations. The type and number of aircraft have not been not determined yet by the present time. F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-18E/F Super Hornet, EF-2000 Eurofighter, JAS-39 Gripen and MiG-29 and Su-30MK are being considered as possible options.

Along with the tender formalities the Air Force of Serbia is engaged with upgrading the aircraft in service. All in all, 17 units of aviation equipment of various types were either restored or upgraded, including 5 MiG-29.

20. Singapore. In November, 2008 the first F-15SG fighter meant for the Air Force of Singapore was rolled out by Boeing. The aircraft is a modified version fighter F-15 Strike Eagle in the inventory of the Air Force of the USA.

In December 12, 2005 the Government of Singapore and Boeing signed an agreement on deliveries of the first 12 F-15SG fighters. The contract included an option for additional 8 fighters F-15SG. In October, 2007, the Ministry of Defense of Singapore announced its intention to exercise the option for the initial contract for the purchase of additional 8 F-15SG fighters. Besides, the Ministry of Defense placed an order for 4 more aircraft to be produced. Thus, the total amount of F-15SG fighters ordered by Singapore makes 24 units. The first production aircraft will be supplied to the Air Force of Singapore during the second quarter of 2009.

At the same time Singapore is the partner (of the third level/program FMS as a participant not sharing the risks) in F-35 project investing $50 million at the stage of the system design and demonstration. Singapore expressed its interest in the purchase of up to 100 F-35 Lightning-2 fighter aircraft.

BALANCE SHEET 2004 - 2013

In general, in 2004 - 2013 global multi-purpose fighter aircraft market may be described as stable growing.

According to the existing orders and tenders held in 2004-2013 not less than 2412 multi-purpose fighters will be sold at the amount of $117.28 billion. Out of this figures new aircraft market will make not less than 1756 aircraft at the total cost of $99.46 billion, which constitute 72.8% of the total amount or 84.8 % of the total cost of the world supplies.

During the first five-year period (2004-2008) the volume of sales of new fighters equaled to 812 aircraft at the cost of $39.16 billion. During the second five-year period (2009-2013) a slight growth of supplies will be seen - 944 aircraft at the price of $60.30 billion or 116 % in quantitative terms and 154% - in monetary value.

During the first five-year period on average 162 modern fighter aircraft are required. Within the following five-year period 198 aircraft will be required, which shows that the market is growing stably.

The countries rank correlation is performed on the basis of either supplied or contracted aircraft for supply. The cost of supplies is accounted as a second priority, so, the countries with the greater cost volume occupy a lower place in the rating if in the quantitative aspect in respect of the supplied aircraft they are inferior to their competitors.

Below, please, find a Table of fighter aircraft supplies for the period of the previous 5 years (2004-2008) and scheduled supplies for the period of 2009-2013 on the basis of the contracted obligations and intentions by January 1, 2009.

Summary table of supplies of new multi-mission fighters in 2004-2013

(number and cost of the supplies, millions of dollars in money terms)

* aircraft supplies from the composition of the Air Force of exporting countries which, in fact, were upgraded to the level of new fighters of the fourth generation with extended service life and with the cost not less $20 million.

The above mentioned table comprises estimation of the supplies of as new multi-mission aircraft, as well as aircraft supplies of the aircraft from the Air Forces of the exporting countries which, in fact, were upgraded to the level of new fighters of the fourth generation with extended service life for the cost not less $20 million.

Since the second hand market is occupied by a greater number of countries acting as exporters and which either sell fighters for lower prices or carry out low price upgrade, so, below is a summary table for the cost estimation of the supplied numbers of multi-mission fighters accounting all transfers and upgrade programs accomplished during 2001-2008 disrespectfully their cost.

The cost assessment (as per the exporting countries) of multi-purpose fighters orders during 2001-2008.

(millions of US dollars in terms of current prices)

* upgrade and overhaul of the aircraft repairs are taken into account.

The first place for the period of 2001 - 2008 in respect of orders belongs to the USA - 43.47 billion US dollars comprising 55.9% of the whole world orders for export of the multi-purpose fighters. In 2008 the orders portfolio of the USA reached maximum cost volume for the period under consideration and it was equal to $16.504 billion (80% of the world wide orders portfolio in 2008). The greatest contribution into the USA orders portfolio in 2008 was made by the license agreement with Turkey to manufacture 100 fighters F-35 "Lightning-2".

The second place for the period of 2001-2008 is occupied by Russia - $13.133 billion (16.9% of the world orders portfolio). Russia developed the greatest orders portfolio for fighters export in 2006 and 2007; $3.101 and 3.065 billion correspondingly. In 2008 the orders portfolio of Russia was equal to $1.175 billion (5.7% of entire world orders portfolio).

The third place for the period from 2001 up to 2008 belongs to The UK- $12.909 billion (16.6%). The maximum orders portfolio for fighters export was formed up by The UK in 2007 - $8.86 billion (68.6% of the orders portfolio for entire 8 years period). The greatest contribution into such a great result of The UK was made by Contract with Saudi Arabia in 2007.

The fourth place for the period from 2001 - 2008 is occupied by China - $2.321 billion (3%). The greatest orders portfolio for the considered period China developed in 2008 - $1.5 billion (64.6 % of the order volume for entire 8-years period). In 2008 the orders portfolio of China was equal to 7.7% of entire volume of the world orders portfolio for the fighters export.

The fifth place for the period of 2001 - 2008 is taken by Sweden - $2.04 billion (2.62% of the world orders portfolio). The greatest orders portfolio Sweden formed up during the period from 2003 and 2004, correspondingly $924 million and $775 million. In 2008 Sweden developed the orders portfolio for fighters export for entire sum of $341 million (1.65% of the world orders portfolio in 2008)

The sixth place for the period of 2001 - 2008 is taken by France - $1.1 billion (1.42% of the world orders portfolio). The greatest orders portfolio France formed up in 2005 - $519 million. The great Agreement with India to upgrade "Mirage-2000" was accounted for 2009.

The second division of multi-mission fighters for the period from 2001 up to 2008 with the orders portfolio from $1 billion up to $500 million in decreasing order incorporates Turkey ($978 million) and Israel ($552 million).

The third division of multi-mission fighters for the period from 2001 up to 2008 with the orders portfolio from $400 million up to $100 million in decreasing order incorporates: The Netherlands ($377 million), Ukraine ($326 million), Switzerland ($110 million) and Greece ($100 million).

All in all 26 countries singed contracts for this category in the period from 2001 up to 2008.

Primary trend of fighters world market development for the period up to 2015 and further

The primary tendency of reformation of the Air Force in the majority countries of the world for the period up to 2015 and further perspective will be constituted by their quantitative reduction with simultaneous attempts to enhance their combat efficiency. It will lead to a narrower market of fighters export and result of more severe competition. In the closest time perspective this situation will be more complex due to the world wide economy crisis which has begun in 2008.

Adoption of new multi-mission fighters is considered as the major method to enhance the Air Force combat efficiency along with its quantitative reduction.

The idea of employment of the multi-mission fighters is pretty attractive because it suggests a possibility to execute equally successful several combat missions simultaneously which are traditional for a front-line (tactical) aviation, such as: gaining air superiority, covering friendly troops and objects against the enemy air strikes, rendering support to the combat actions of other kinds of the Air Force, launching strikes against the enemy troops and objects and render direct aviation support of the friendly troops.

The highly improved accuracy of the strikes against the ground targets launched by the modern destruction means and especially by the high precision weapons enables the one to assign reduced forces to destroy one standard object, and so, to reduce the quantitative composition of the Air Force. The Fighters ability to perform several missions simultaneously makes it possible to resolve a long-standing problem of reduction the Air Force kinds.

Today, the world economy crisis, increase of the new aircraft cost and considerable increase of time terms from the beginning of the aircraft design up to their adoption for the inventory has a significant impact upon the fighters' world market in the part of procurement of new aircraft.

For a great number of countries which are not able to procure new aviation means because of economy considerations the fundamental upgrade of the adopted fighters will become an unavoidable alternative which will make the following possible:

• to extend the aircraft pool service life;
• to save financial means considerably;
• to enhance tactical and technical properties of the aircraft.

The upgrade of the available pool of fighters to maintain and to improve the combat ability will become one of the major tendencies which characterize the world market of fighters for the period up to 2015.

Considering a preliminary prognosis at the border line of 2015 and further it is likely to note, that all leading manufacturers and all aviation programs face their own problems. So, after 2015 the situation in the market will be dependent upon successful negotiations of these problems.

The debut arrival of the multi-mission fighter F-35 "Lightning-2" to the market will have an impact upon the world market of the fighter aviation during the period from 2011 to 2015. Though, for some time it will be insignificant.

The competitors are ready that despite all problems the program of F-35 will be completed. In case of a successful resolution of the existing problems this aircraft will seriously push majority of competitors aside. In this case it will be possible to struggle with F-35 for the period not exceeding 10 years (not later than until 2020). After that the competitors are to approach markets with a new product which will become an alternative for fighter F-35.

So, in the future, it is impossible to exclude a possibility of several alliances formation to design a fighter of the fifth generation. Possible coalitions may look as following: Boeing + West European manufacturers, Russia + West European manufacturers and Russia + India (or China). In case of a passive position of these manufacturers it may be possible, that by 2020 they will have to leave the aviation market. So far, out of all hypothetical alliances only one was developed - Russia + India.

All in all during the period from 2011 to 2020 the average annual sales of the fighters of all types are forecasted within volumes from 270 up to 300 units.

In compliance with the preliminary estimation The USA and Russia will share leadership with a great gap from the other pretenders. At the same time The USA has great chances for a success because beginning from 2012 it is scheduled to start first export supplies of fighters F-35 "Lightning-2" within the limited scales. By all means Japan, South Korea and Israel may become potential buyers of the fifth generation fighter F-22A after accomplishment of the program of its production manufacture in the interests of the Air Force of the USA and after issuing the permission for its export (if there is such permission).

Besides, the USA have not exhausted the export potential in respect of the supplies of the fourth generation aircraft completely. Taiwan may become the greatest Customer in this segment. It is engaged in negotiations with the Department of Defense of The USA on the issue to procure 60 fighters F-16C/D "Fighting Falcon".

In general, the portfolio of the export orders of the USA may exceed 350 pieces for the period of 2011 to 2015 accounting the beginning of the supply of F-35 "Lightning -2" (if its design is accomplished by that time), as well as in the case of winning some above mentioned tenders.

At the time, it is difficult to provide an irrefragable answer in respect of the Russian orders portfolio for the period from 2011 to 2015. But taking the tendencies into account it is possible to insist that there will be a stable demand for the Russian fighters. So, the gap with other pretenders for the rating is considered as pretty significant. In case of winning the tender to supply 126 new fighters for India, once more, Russia may occupy the first place again. If either "Lockheed Martin" or "Boeing" wins this tender The USA will become unattainable for the competitors.

Most likely China will retain the third place. As an addition for the available package for 80 fighters JF-17 Beijing in the closest future will sign a contract with Islamabad for procurement of 36 fighters J-10 (FC-20).

The remaining places will be distributed among The  UK, Sweden, and France with fighters EF-2000 Typhoon, JAS-39 Gripen and Rafale correspondingly.

It is necessary to note that many countries possessing small pools of fighter aviation, as a perspective, may prefer to procure light training-combat aircraft. It is possible to observe some symptoms of this tendency.

The experts are of different opinion about the forthcoming adoption of the reconnaissance and combat unmanned aerial vehicles and their optimum proportion in respect of the piloted combat aircraft. From the point of view of majority of the experts the unmanned aerial vehicles will not cause a serious competition for the piloted aviation during the period up to 2015, even if it is possible to presume that the cost of the unmanned aerial vehicles will not exceed 40% of the cost of the modern combat aircraft. The scope of operation of the unmanned aerial vehicle will still be considerably limited if compared with the combat piloted aviation.

Nevertheless, eventually, the unmanned aerial vehicles will accept some functions of the piloted aviation. First of all it is related to reconnaissance functions, sea patrolling and striking mission in the theater of military operations. Today, already the unmanned aerial vehicles assume a great deal of the load executing reconnaissance missions. As a perspective they will supplemented by the missions of sea patrolling actions and execution of the mission in the theater of military operations (so far the unmanned aerial vehicles are used as an experiment to work out the perspective systems). It means that in the future the tendency of employment of a combined aviation pool incorporating fighters and unmanned aerial vehicles to execute the same missions will be developed. Composition of these pools for the favor of the unmanned aerial vehicles will be changed extremely slowly but as a perspective this tendency, to gain support from the unmanned aerial vehicles it is considered as irreversible in future.

Moreover, from the point of view of the majority experts the sixth generation of the fighter aviation will be unmanned. A new jet version of a reconnaissance/striking unmanned aerial vehicle "Predator-S" nominated as "Avenger" which is under development of Company "General Atomics" may be considered as a prototype of such a system. The works to design a jet version of the unmanned aerial vehicle were on the way since 2005. The first flight of the unmanned aerial vehicle "Avenger" took place in 2005.

The unmanned aerial vehicle "Avenger" will enlarge the scope of missions which are executed by the unmanned aerial vehicle of "Predator" series including an autonomous high altitude reconnaissance which is executed by MQ-1 "Predator" and hitting ground and sea targets using MQ-9 "Ripper".

The new unmanned aerial vehicle is 12.4 m long; its wings span is 20 meters. The vehicle is capable to gain speed of 740 km/h and operate at altitudes up to 18.1 thousand meters. 

Expecting a request from the Army of The USA to supply unmanned aerial vehicles of the new generation (NG- UAS), "General Atomics" independently designed two trial prototypes of "Predator-S".

The fact that when using modern fighters the pilot, in fact, reached a limit of psycho-physiological and physical loads is also in favor of the unmanned aerial vehicle as a basis for a fighter of the sixth generation. The volume of the information/control field of the cockpit of the modern fighter reached the limit of psycho-physiological abilities of a pilot in the part of perception, assessment of the fed information, arrival to a decision and its execution when controlling the aircraft and usage of aerial means of firepower.

Not the aircraft but the pilot will be the barrier for further evolution of the piloted aviation. An average "flying longevity" today is equal to 10 - 15 years. Intensive flying employment of fighters of the new generation in entire scope of the increased number of combat missions may lead to further reduction of the pilots' "flying longevity" and this fact will not make it possible to use the combat potential of multi-mission fighters to the full extent.