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RECESSION ADJUSTS UAC PLANS
The corporation cuts productions but forecasts resurgence.
The sharp drop in passenger traffic as well as in orders placed for the new passenger and cargo aircraft caused by the continuing economic downturn has hit the UAC's production program for 2009-2012.
The United Aircraft Corporation reported its plans to produce 196 civil aircraft within the next four years. The figure cut by more than 50% includes 118 regional jets, 58 narrow-body airliners of the Tu-204/214 family, nine wide-body Il-96s and eleven Be-200 multipurpose amphibious airplanes. It is still unclear as to precisely how these changes will affect the Superjet 100, which rests among the priority projects. UAC states that “despite cuts the revised production plan provides for an increase in output of new jetliners this year in comparison with the previous ones.” This year the group plans to assemble 22 civil aircraft. Thus, the number of aircraft to be produced within 2010-2012 figures up to 174 units. So, it may be assumed that during that period UAC member enterprises should on average roll out 58 airplanes annually. However, analysts believe the revised plan is more than optimistic taking into account the fact that no more than 8 civil aircrafts were delivered and some more were produced last year.
The announcement made by UAC at the Annual Shareholders Meeting sees no adjustment to military and special purpose aircraft programs, which is hardly surprising. Annual reports show military aircraft overtaking civil aircraft deliveries, which always helped Russian aviation industry tackle financial challenges and keep the ball rolling. Thus, last year may seem rather fruitful for the enterprises integrated in the corporation. The UAC statement revealed an increase in last year's production output and raise in the companies' consolidated income by 21%. According to preliminarily data, in 2008 the group of companies gained income of 85.174 billion rubles (which stand for around 2.700 billion US dollars on the basis of the exchange rate current while writing this article) against 70.592 the corporation
had a year before.
In 2009 the United Aircraft Corporation expects to increase consolidated sales revenues by 39% and gain total of 119.2 billion rubles (the figure does not include JSC NAZ “Sokol”, JSC “Ilyushin Finance Ko”, “Russian Aircraft Corporation “MiG” and Kazan Aircraft Production Association (KAPO)), stated UAC president Alexey Fedorov at Aviaforum-2009 conference. In the light of the recent events the forecast is likely to prove at least by one thirds, if not by hundred-per-cent. In April Ilyushin Finance and Voronezh Aviation Plant (VASO), both members in the United Aircraft Corporation, delivered two new aircraft of the Il-96 family - one Il-96-300 passenger jet, which went to the Special Air Detachment under the Administration of the President of Russian Federation (the operator is also referred to as GTK Rossiya), and one Il-96-400T freighter that was delivered to Voronezh-based Polet airline. Meantime, VASO is completing work on the first Russian-made An-148 regional jet, expected to be delivered to GTK Rossiya. The An-148 is among the priority programs for the Voronezh plant. UAC says in the past 18 months the corporation has invested a total of 6.9 billion rubles into VASO programs, including 3.3 billion rubles into the An-148. The money was spent to purchase new manufacturing equipment and set up the An-148 assembly line. In addition, UAC is planning to invest additional 7.5 billion rubles into VASO programs this year.
At the same time, another landmark is expected this year. The KAPO plant, which delivered two Tupolev Tu-214SR aircraft to the Special Air Detachment under the Administration of the President of Russian Federation this month, is promised to join the corporation by the end of this year. Despite the existing gloom in the Russian civil aviation industry the corporation aspires to boost productions and deliver one Tu-204, two An-148 monthly and up to 70 Sukhoi Superjet 100 annually. The corporation hopes to launch new MC-21 aircraft by 2016. According to the development program set, by 2025 UAC plans to produce around 260-280 civil aircraft a year – one may say a rather ambitious goal can be reached just by increasing the production rate by 30% annually.
Scarcely have the deliveries lived up to the expectations before. For instance, in 2007 according to UAC spokesman, the corporation delivered 7 civil aircraft, in 2008 the figure amounted to 8 and some more aircraft were assembled. At the same time, according to different sources, the corporation planned to deliver from 12 to 16 airplanes annually. The existing production rates of civil aircraft do not correspond to airlines' demand and tasks set by UAC, stated Alexey Fedorov. According to UAC report by the end of this March, the world aircarriers fleet encompasses 14386 aircraft, including 11160 narrow-body aircraft, 2664 wide-body airliners and 562 very large aircraft. Meanwhile, the corporation expects that over the next 20 years, the world's airlines will require around 27,000 new passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats, worth US$2.8 trillion. The forecast implies around 10,000 aircraft from the existing fleet will be replaced by more efficient models – a huge market worth fighting for.
Notwithstanding the deepening financial crisis that keeps hitting orderbooks and knocking sales, chances that the Russian enterprises will take the challenge are not high but still exist. The first beacon of hope appeared after Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev and Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin launched a series of promising visits to Russian aircraft manufacturing facilities and offered support in fact and not it words.
"The state is ready to buy into authorised capitals to preserve crucial enterprises,” Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin reported to the State Duma in April, “The MiG Corporation, for example, has received 15 billion rubles, and the Khrunichev Centre 8 billion rubles. We may take similar decisions regarding other companies, above all those who are directly responsible to the state, primarily in the defence sector. To begin with, 70 billion rubles have been allocated for industrial support, and the figure is 170 billion rubles with due account of guarantees on loans." The UAC's chief stated that in 2009 the corporation expects to receive state support of about 40 billion rubles. Whereas, the necessary support estimated by UAC till 2015 makes around 500 billion rubles, including 300 billion rubles for
Research and Advanced Development.
